The automotive and transportation sector of the future will be shaped by the user and vehicle owners. The unit cost of self-driving and shared vehicles is expected to be almost 70% less than driver-based, individually owned cars. Here at CDMMobil, we follow modern trends as well as setting future ones as a maker of electric motors. Our guiding principle: MOVE & GO GREEN.
The existing system used by the automotive and transportation sector is old, and on the verge of transformation thanks to shifts in technology and social trends. One cannot predict the extent of this change. However, the forces that are affecting the industry also have the potential to affect its structure, how they do business, compete, create value, and offer customers value. There are two leading schools of thought about how transportation systems of the future might be like: unsider and disruptive.
• The Unsider View does not predict that much in the way significant change to current assets and basic structure (for the industry) will take place. Rather, it proposes that the existing system will evolve linearly. It predicts that vehicles will continue to play an important part in our understanding of private property and will still largely be controlled by people.
• The Distruptive View takes a more radical and transformative approach to things. It proposes a world in which autonomous vehicles (that can be accessed on demand) will create a brand new ecosystem, and offer people a drastically different mobility experience. It adds that catalysts such as Google, Uber and Apple would eventually role out solutions that would reduce accidents, unclog traffic, slash energy demand and transportation costs, and charge people who use infrastructure based on how much of it they use. One would also see the disappearance of parking spaces going hand in hand with multi-model transportation.
The question of who controls (driver or automated) and owns the vehicle (private or shared) lends self to four potential scenarios:
Scenario 1 Gradual change Here, private vehicle ownership continues to be the industry standard. Likewise, the importance that users attach to security, flexibility, privacy and comfort – all of which come along with owning a car – continues. Although driver support-based technology already exists, it is highly unlikely that fully autonomous cars will become the norm any time in the near future.
Scenario 2 A world of shared journey Here enters the world of shared vehicles. In this scenario, users get to enjoy the convenience of car sharing while traveling from point A to B – free from traffic and parking hassles. Car sharing meets a huge part of the local transportation needs. Households who have more than one car either cut down how many cars they own, or give up driving all together.
Scenario 3 Self-driving revolution This scenario is more of a phase, in which self-driving vehicle technologies have reached the stage where they have been deemed safe, comfortable, and economical. The only catch here is that car ownership still maintains its importance as well. Likewise, technology and automotive companies (now) heavily invest in V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle) and V2I (vehicle-to-infrastructure) communication. Users opt to benefit from self-driving because it offers them security, but they also still hold onto their own cars as well.
Scenario 4 The age of accessible self-driving vehicles Here, both self-driving cars and car sharing are the norm. By now, companies that focus mobility management would emerge onto the scene and offer people various travel services at different price ranges.
Mobility Services Platform
Around three to five years ago, if you were to have asked people what the most valuable part of a car was, most would say an engine. Now, people value connectivity instead. It looks as if that won’t change any time soon, either. This naturally gives data-driven business models a major competitive edge.
Today, four major trends are driving the shift to integrated mobility ecosystems:
Sharing Economy
• Vehicle sales are dropping, as people’s vehicle ownership needs shift
• Vehicle users (not owners) expect more on-demand mobility
Connectivity
• Users expect their digital experience to be smooth
• People are starting to view vehicles as just “another device”, like phones or computer
• The stability, speed, and amount of 5G data collection that such technologies all offer -- and will continue to offer -- are nothing but positive
E-Mobility
• A cost reduction when it comes to vehicle production
• A rise in competition sparked by the arrival of new players who don’t hail from an automotive background
• A drop in after-sales services revenues
Autonomous Driving
• The emergence of new ways to interact with and use vehicles
• The ever-growing need for vehicle companies to collaborate with other industries in the name of business development and marketing